We believe that our world is largely logical and predictable, and therefore we make forecasts, calculate the likelihood of earthquakes, epidemics, economic crises, try to guess the results of trading on the exchange and sports matches. In this vast ocean, it is important to be able to correctly recognize a real signal and not be distracted by useless informational noise.
Nate Silver, the political visionary and the statistics guru, who developed a system of forecasts, which allowed the results of the presidential elections in almost all states of America, tells how to learn this. His book is largely close to the research of Nassim Taleb and is equally significant for everyone who is dealing with large amounts of data and calculates various options for the development of events. And if Taleb speaks of the laws of the origin of “black swans”, Silver explores models and methods that allow us to catch these birds into the networks we have set. He summarizes the experience of expert practitioners, studies various models and under …
Author
Silver Nate
Editor
Vysochkina Anna
Translator
Mironov P.
Publisher
Hummingbird, 2015
Series
Thinking man
Genre
Popular psychology
16+
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